Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 32.792534 35.548025 38.557570 42.113041 46.231031 50.891065 56.622575
2025-03-23 29.051095 32.768878 37.111291 42.647242 49.654526 58.432940 70.619988
2025-03-30 26.324193 30.426889 35.425245 42.124826 51.144133 63.324883 81.954474
2025-04-06 24.426699 28.760034 34.213219 41.819015 52.592838 68.122606 94.102221
2025-04-13 22.363894 26.647160 32.152573 40.038183 51.606872 69.078674 100.358435
2025-04-20 21.681064 26.228500 32.234590 41.143337 54.847264 76.945367 120.712218
2025-04-27 20.718596 25.345335 31.580862 41.078652 56.239828 82.026691 137.780931
2025-05-04 20.440379 25.350976 32.137491 42.829074 60.743056 93.512644 174.113868
2025-05-11 19.743405 24.718836 31.715840 43.005276 62.600080 100.483822 204.104596
2025-05-18 19.386455 24.534312 31.920153 44.174231 66.363248 112.339268 257.681431
2025-05-25 18.523345 23.569902 30.884604 43.197045 65.996225 115.063455 284.072717
2025-06-01 17.600009 22.473171 29.582989 41.663013 64.362718 114.474418 297.836990
2025-06-08 16.386737 21.008095 27.801787 39.470998 61.780750 112.555926 312.992350
2025-06-15 15.863945 20.545837 27.562758 39.959363 64.765766 126.146528 431.375496
2025-06-22 15.192970 19.815260 26.836365 39.489187 65.659165 134.669737 555.481213
2025-06-29 14.628955 19.209537 26.258727 39.213676 66.917538 145.044219 757.488104
2025-07-06 13.856458 18.244396 25.032478 37.606726 64.867016 143.959562 843.716359
2025-07-13 13.640100 18.122089 25.178106 38.604485 69.124599 167.264396 1667.621897
2025-07-20 13.250542 17.707002 24.802917 38.546132 70.803662 182.471270 3215.060305
2025-07-27 13.164805 17.763375 25.226359 40.123191 77.113105 224.280868 92239.933300
2025-08-03 12.854642 17.443364 24.974482 40.281713 79.636538 251.476948 NaN
2025-08-10 12.698949 17.363667 25.136628 41.332320 85.066270 305.165285 NaN
2025-08-17 12.274331 16.824785 24.445184 40.454192 84.409428 317.291606 NaN